market stats
Mortgage interest rates are on the rise. In the past few weeks, interest rates have ticked upwards. The raise in the interet rates hurt for sure: it reduces the amount of house many buyers can afford. My buyers and have sellers have felt the sting. Reality is that we had historically LOW interest interest rates and they couldn't last forever below 4%.
So where are they going? And how is the real estate market going to be impacted?
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Associaton of Realtors, had the following points:
- Anticipates hitting 5% by mid year 2014 & may climb higher in 2015
- it will push some buyers out of the market (especially as sales prices are increasing)
- improvements in underwriting loans as they return to less restrictive requirements
- Yun estimates that 15-20% MORE households are qualifying for safe, affordable mortgages with conventional financing (Loans up to $417,000) with credit scores of 720 or above. (In recent years the credit score needed to be 760-770)
- FHA Loans - credit scores of 660 (prevously was 680-700)
- Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae have greatly improved their performance & are starting to turn profits. Hopefully once they have repaid tax payer funds they will reduce some of these fees
It's important to remember as mortgage interest rates rise, they are still low and it is a great time to buy a home.
market stats
The year to date numbers for sales are out for June 2013 from the First Multiple Listing Service (FMLS). There has been a continued increase in the average sales prices while the active inventory & sales have continued decline. The average sales price for single family homes has increased 29% comparing YTD June 2013 to YTD June 2012. For the same time period - attached homes have increased 30%. Year to date sales for June 2013 vs same time period in 2012 - single family homes have decreased 4% an attached homes have decreased by 1%. Active inventory has decreased 34% for attached homes and 17% for single family homes.
I am not surprised one bit at the increase in average sales prices. Limited availabilty of homes for sale coupled with a high demand of buyers has brought us multiple offers. We have been seeing multiple offers since Late 2012 many of them going over the asking price to win the home. Multiple offers are great for sellers because they can choose their highest and best offer. Multiple Offers can be frustrating for the buyers because a great bid - even one over asking price doesn't always yield the win and that is always frustrating.
One HUGE point needs to be said about the above numbers. The stats above all include homes listed and sold through the FMLS. In the past 8 to 9 months - many homes have never made it to the FMLS which would be an argument for higher sales than reported above. It is common in new construction for homes to not be reported to FMLS.
market stats
Pending home sales for the month of March 2010 increased 5.3% from the previous month to 102.9. The March 2010 is 21.1% higher than March 2009 which was 85.0. The data is provided by the National Realtors Association and is for homes under contract - not closed.
Definitely the increase is in part to the end of the buyer tax credit (must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by end of June 2010). According to Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist, "Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped stabilized the market. In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales. Later in the second half of the year and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand as they see ome values stablizing."
From my persepective - yes - we will probably see a slow down in under contracts and sales after April 30th but many Atlanta buyers are out there. They want to buy even if they didn't get the tax credit. Home prices seem to be stabilizing in areas (still early but the numbers are showing some improvements), and loans are becoming readily available in the jumbo market (loans over $417,000) as banks' begin to show healthy balance sheets. Buyers want great deals and sellers are understanding this and working to price their homes right for the current market. I am talking to buyers who still want to buy!
In Metro Atlanta - we are starting to see
a slight reduction in the unemployment rate which is a lagging indicator of the economy. The unemployment rate will follow other improvements in the economy - such as the increase in the pending sales numbers. The good news is that March 2010 the unemployment rate dropped for the Metro Altanta area.
market stats
The National Association of Realtors said today that home sales rose 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July, from a pace of 4.89 million in June. It was the 4th straight monthly increase and the highest level of sales since August 2007. Sales had been expected to rise to annual pace of 5 million, according to surveyed economists. July's increase to 5.24 million was higher than anticipated. "The housing market, with today's strong rise in sales, has decisively turned for the better," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
National the median sales price is down by 15 percent to $178,400. Sales of foreclosures & distressed properties make up about a third of all transactions in July which is down from half of all transactions from earlier this year. In several markets across the US - buyers are purchasing foreclosed properties at deep discounts.
The tax credit for first time buyers - also seems to have helped sales. In order to qualify for the First-time buyer tax credit - homes must be CLOSED by November 30, 2009. The tax credit is for 10% of the purchase price upt to a maximum of $8,000. And while it is billed for the first time buyers - you may qualify if you haven't owned a primary property for the past 3 years.
The 9.4-month supply of current inventory at the current sales pace is unchanged from June.
market stats
At the annual Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the U.S. economy is on the verge of a long-awaited recovery after enduring a brutal recession. Bernanke said that economic activity in both the U.S. and around the world appears to be "leveling out," and "the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good."
~sourced AJC.com
market stats
An article in the AJC today reports that the median sales price of single family homes in metro Atlanta rose in the 2nd Quarter of 2009. The metro Atlanta median sales price was $121,400 in the 2 nd Q of 2009, up 5 percent from $115,600 for the 1stQ of the year. The current median sales price is 23 percent lower than it was this time last year, $158,300, according to figures released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. Click
here for the full AJC article.
When comparing the 2nd Quarter 2009 sales (number sold) to 2nd Quarter 2008 sales - there has been an expected decline in the number of sales. 2ndQ 2008 - total of 10,029 sales vs. 2ndQ 2009 - total of 8,520 sales. But when broken out by sales price there is actually an increase in 2ndQ 2009's numbers in the $200k or less sales price. 2ndQ 2008 total of 4,692 sales vs. 2ndQ 2009 of 5,035 sales. Foreclosures and declining prices attribute to this increase in sales.
Foreclosures have had a tremendous impact on the 2009 market. 2Q 2008 - 19.5% of the sales were foreclosures compared to 2Q 2009 where 31.8% of the sales were foreclosures. (Short sales are not included in these statistics at present as there is not a way to accurately track them.) Certainly many buyers have been taking advantage of the falling prices & the $8000 tax credit to purchase homes. As foreclores, short sales & great buys are purchased and the inventories absorbed - we should begin to see pricing stabilizing and eventually price increases.
market stats
The Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 11 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, from an upwardly revised May rate of 346,000. WOW.
It is the fastest increase in more than eight years for new construction home sales.
Indeed home prices are still falling, but the improvement in new construction sales is another sign the national housing market is starting to bounce back. Earlier this month, the government reported that national home resales rose almost 4 percent in June, the third straight monthly increase.
"The worst of the housing recession ... is now behind us," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. "We're turning the corner toward increased activity in housing."
The median national sales price of $206,200 was down 12 percent from $234,300 a year earlier and off nearly 6 percent from $219,000 in May. In addition to lower prices, buyers are rushing to take advantage of a federal tax credit that covers 10 percent of the home price or up to $8,000 for first-time buyers. Home sales need to be completed by the end of November for buyers to take advantage. You must
close by November 30, 2009.
June's results were the strongest sales pace since November 2008 and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 360,000 units. The last time sales rose so dramatically was in December 2000.
There were 281,000 new homes for sale at the end of June, down more than 4 % from May. At the current sales pace, that represents 8.8 months of supply which is the lowest level since October 2007. Some analysts say that when the inventory falls down around a 6 month supply, builders will feel more comfortable ramping up construction.
Portions of this article were sourced from a July 2009 article by real estate columnist Alan Zeibel & FMLS
market stats
The FMLS has finally published the June 2009 numbers! And there is continued good news in the numbers. Across all of FMLS areas (36 total) average closed prices are continuing to head back up. We are seeing lower inventories and the large number of months supply of houses on the market is starting to moderate as inventories continue to decline. If this trend continues we can expect prices to continue to increase.
Below are the monthly charts for 5 in-town areas of the FMLS - just a portion of the 36 total areas in FMLS.
FOR CONDOS/TOWNHOMES:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
72 |
$ 21,803,417 |
$ 302,825 |
$ 435,664 |
74.1% |
146.2 |
| 23 |
75 |
$ 14,983,000 |
$ 199,773 |
$ 218,380 |
96.0% |
107.6 |
| 24 |
5 |
$ 868,900 |
$ 173,780 |
$ 188,560 |
96.2% |
49.6 |
| 52 |
46 |
$ 7,643,805 |
$ 166,170 |
$ 186,434 |
94.4% |
120.1 |
| TOTALS |
198 |
$ 45,299,122 |
|
|
|
|
HOUSES:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
65 |
$61,106,623 |
$ 940,102 |
$ ,138,312 |
87.8% |
115.5 |
| 23 |
40 |
$19,032,273 |
$ 475,807 |
$ 550,100 |
94.7% |
132.5 |
| 24 |
63 |
$14,952,700 |
$ 237,344 |
$ 262,342 |
96.2% |
91.8 |
| 31 |
119 |
$5,230,423 |
$ 43,953 |
$ 57,414 |
92.8% |
79.6 |
| 32 |
73 |
$8,631,929 |
$ 118,246 |
$ 135,225 |
95.6% |
79.8 |
| 52 |
160 |
$35,186,598 |
$ 219,916 |
$ 247,542 |
93.7% |
90.2 |
| TOTALS |
520 |
$144,140,546 |
|
|
|
|
Click
here for FMLS Area - key codes.
In these in-town markets - the total sales volume for Condos/Town homes was $21,804,580 for May compared to June's sales volume of $45,299,122. Sales volume of single family homes in these 5 areas jumped to $144,140,546 in sales volume compared to May's sales volume of $99,337,550. Here are breakdowns of past months:
May 2009,
April 2009 &
March 2009.
It is a great time to buy!
market stats
May 2009 Numbers:
Condos/Townhomes:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
51 |
$ 9,505,160 |
$ 186,370 |
$ 199,370 |
93.5% |
97.1 |
| 23 |
39 |
$ 6,659,470 |
$ 168,488 |
$ 174,322 |
96.6% |
98.9 |
| 24 |
5 |
$ 1,171,500 |
$ 234,300 |
$ 236,380 |
99.1% |
142.2 |
| 52 |
23 |
$ 4,468,450 |
$ 194,280 |
$ 205,466 |
94.6% |
163.6 |
| TOTALS |
118 |
$ 21,804,580 |
|
|
|
|
Homes:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
41 |
$31,948,960 |
$ 779,243 |
$ 855,875 |
91.0% |
161.3 |
| 23 |
32 |
$16,852,438 |
$ 526,639 |
$ 573,433 |
91.8% |
103.2 |
| 24 |
43 |
$10,013,330 |
$ 232,868 |
$ 245,127 |
95.0% |
92.5 |
| 31 |
148 |
$7,345,715 |
$ 49,633 |
$ 53,536 |
92.7% |
106.6 |
| 32 |
55 |
$5,260,975 |
$ 95,654 |
$ 101,802 |
94.0% |
71 |
| 52 |
135 |
$27,916,132 |
$ 206,786 |
$ 220,757 |
93.7% |
88.7 |
| TOTALS |
454 |
$99,337,550 |
|
|
|
|
The area key is
here.
market stats
There was an increase in the number of sales in the intown markets from March 2009 to April 2009. In single family houses - there were 23 more closings and in increase in sales volume of $16,631,268.
April 2009 Numbers:
Homes:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
43 |
$ 8,645,504 |
$ 201,058 |
$ 221,666 |
94.7% |
120.8 |
| 23 |
47 |
$ 11,501,906 |
$ 244,721 |
$ 268,637 |
97.0% |
155.4 |
| 24 |
1 |
$ 190,000 |
$ 190,000 |
$ 210,000 |
95.2% |
25 |
| 52 |
23 |
$ 3,867,405 |
$ 168,148 |
$ 182,914 |
95.0% |
120.4 |
| TOTALS |
114 |
$ 24,204,815 |
|
|
|
|
Condos & Townhomes:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
43 |
$ 8,645,504 |
$ 201,058 |
$ 221,666 |
94.7% |
120.8 |
| 23 |
47 |
$ 11,501,906 |
$ 244,721 |
$ 268,637 |
97.0% |
155.4 |
| 24 |
1 |
$ 190,000 |
$ 190,000 |
$ 210,000 |
95.2% |
25 |
| 52 |
23 |
$ 3,867,405 |
$ 168,148 |
$ 182,914 |
95.0% |
120.4 |
| TOTALS |
114 |
$ 24,204,815 |
|
|
|
|
Key to the Areas is
here. March 2009 numbers are
here and February 2009 numbers are
here.
Here are the national housing indicators for the April:
Existing-Home Sales 4.68 million units*
Existing-Home Median Price $170,200
Housing Starts 458,000*
New Home Sales 352,000 units*
*seasonally adjusted annual rate
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a slight reduction in the unemployment rate which is a lagging indicator of the economy. The unemployment rate will follow other improvements in the economy - such as the increase in the pending sales numbers. The good news is that March 2010 the unemployment rate dropped for the Metro Altanta area.
