Economy Improving
As is my custom - I was listening to Good Morning America as I let the dogs out, make the coffee and get started on waking up. But this morning - I was delightfully jolted out of my early morning haze by Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwabb, who proclaimed that the recession had ended. What is even better is that she was agreeing with Barry Knapp, of Barclay's Capital, who recently announced that the recession may have ended last month in April. Knapp actually said the economy appears "to be in the sweet spot of a recovery".
One of the indicators pointing to a recovery is unemployment. Unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy - meaning unemployment may not improve for several months and you can expect that unemployment will peak by year end. Historically employment figures don't seem recover until six months after the end of a recession. However, Sonders indicated that layoffs are slowing down and the unemployment claims are starting to edge lower.
Another indicator pointing to a economic recovery is the housing market. One of the leading indicators of how the housing marketing is faring is the inventory level - the number of homes on the market. According to Pat Lashinsky of Zip Realty, "Inventory levels are actually declining and median home prices of homes available for sale have actually gone up." When the number of homes on the market goes down - prices rise and the market improves. "The fact that inventory is declining is suggesting that soon we may see home prices begin to stabilize. In some markets, it may begin to turn upward. But the downturn in the housing that we've had for the last three years may be coming to an end," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. "Buyers are a lot more engaged," Yun said. "There's an excitement and a passion that hasn't been seen in the last 18 months right now."
These statistics are for the national markets and it will be interesting to see what our metro Atlanta numbers will be. It will be a week or two before our April numbers our out but even our
March numbers showed improvement. NAR's numbers for the national market showed improvement in march as well -
here they are.
