Market
The NAR - National Association of Realtors - announced the pending home sales show an uptrend for the past four consecutive months. They attribute favorable housing affordability and 1st time buyer tax credits as boosting the latest survey. The June Pending Homes Sales Index increased 0.1% to 90.7%. The last time there were four consecutive monthly gains was in October 2004. Closed existing-home sales are improving but they are coming in lower than expected because of delayed closings or falling through due to financing qualifications or road blocks with the new appraisal rules in place. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, "Rises in contract activity show buyers are becoming more active even as they face much more stringent loan underwriting standards. Speedy clarification of the appraisal rules could smooth a housing market recovery and support the overall economy".
Tagged:
There was an increase in the number of sales in the intown markets from March 2009 to April 2009. In single family houses - there were 23 more closings and in increase in sales volume of $16,631,268.
April 2009 Numbers:
Homes:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
43 |
$ 8,645,504 |
$ 201,058 |
$ 221,666 |
94.7% |
120.8 |
| 23 |
47 |
$ 11,501,906 |
$ 244,721 |
$ 268,637 |
97.0% |
155.4 |
| 24 |
1 |
$ 190,000 |
$ 190,000 |
$ 210,000 |
95.2% |
25 |
| 52 |
23 |
$ 3,867,405 |
$ 168,148 |
$ 182,914 |
95.0% |
120.4 |
| TOTALS |
114 |
$ 24,204,815 |
|
|
|
|
Condos & Townhomes:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
43 |
$ 8,645,504 |
$ 201,058 |
$ 221,666 |
94.7% |
120.8 |
| 23 |
47 |
$ 11,501,906 |
$ 244,721 |
$ 268,637 |
97.0% |
155.4 |
| 24 |
1 |
$ 190,000 |
$ 190,000 |
$ 210,000 |
95.2% |
25 |
| 52 |
23 |
$ 3,867,405 |
$ 168,148 |
$ 182,914 |
95.0% |
120.4 |
| TOTALS |
114 |
$ 24,204,815 |
|
|
|
|
Key to the Areas is
here. March 2009 numbers are
here and February 2009 numbers are
here.
Here are the national housing indicators for the April:
Existing-Home Sales 4.68 million units*
Existing-Home Median Price $170,200
Housing Starts 458,000*
New Home Sales 352,000 units*
*seasonally adjusted annual rate
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April 2009, rose 6.7 % to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March 2009, and is 3.2%. when it was 87.5.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions. "Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market," he says. "Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 (2009) to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers."
Geographical Breakdown of Pending Home Sales Index
Northeast: The index shot up 32.6 % to 78.9 in April and is 0.8 % above a year ago.
Midwest: The index rose 9.8 % to 90.4 and is 11.1 % above April 2008.
South: The index slipped 0.2% to 93 in April but is 3.5% higher than a year ago.
West: The index rose 1.8 % to 94.8 but is 2.9 % below April 2008.
Gov. Sonny Perdue signed on Monday Bill 261 into law. The law offers a tax credit of 1.2 percent of the purchase price of a single-family home currently on the market. The credit tops out at $1,800 and will be taken over three years. Georgia taxpayers have six months starting now to qualify for up to $1,800 in income tax credits by buying a home.
For first-time home buyers, the state credit would be in addition to a federal credit offered through the federal stimulus act. That credit is worth up to $8,000. The new state credit, however, applies to
any home buyer, not just first-timers. Read more about the $8,000 federal tax
here.
As is my custom - I was listening to Good Morning America as I let the dogs out, make the coffee and get started on waking up. But this morning - I was delightfully jolted out of my early morning haze by Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwabb, who proclaimed that the recession had ended. What is even better is that she was agreeing with Barry Knapp, of Barclay's Capital, who recently announced that the recession may have ended last month in April. Knapp actually said the economy appears "to be in the sweet spot of a recovery".
One of the indicators pointing to a recovery is unemployment. Unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy - meaning unemployment may not improve for several months and you can expect that unemployment will peak by year end. Historically employment figures don't seem recover until six months after the end of a recession. However, Sonders indicated that layoffs are slowing down and the unemployment claims are starting to edge lower.
Another indicator pointing to a economic recovery is the housing market. One of the leading indicators of how the housing marketing is faring is the inventory level - the number of homes on the market. According to Pat Lashinsky of Zip Realty, "Inventory levels are actually declining and median home prices of homes available for sale have actually gone up." When the number of homes on the market goes down - prices rise and the market improves. "The fact that inventory is declining is suggesting that soon we may see home prices begin to stabilize. In some markets, it may begin to turn upward. But the downturn in the housing that we've had for the last three years may be coming to an end," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. "Buyers are a lot more engaged," Yun said. "There's an excitement and a passion that hasn't been seen in the last 18 months right now."
These statistics are for the national markets and it will be interesting to see what our metro Atlanta numbers will be. It will be a week or two before our April numbers our out but even our
March numbers showed improvement. NAR's numbers for the national market showed improvement in march as well -
here they are.
Interest rates remain low! As of today - conforming loans (under $417k) remain at 4.375%. FHA rates remain at 4.5%. And jumbo rates for qualified buyers remain as low as 5.5% with equity and excellent credit.
I ran some numbers to see what kind of savings you would have with these low rates. WOW - over the life of the loan you can save tens of thousands of dollars. On a loan amount of $200,000 - the monthly mortgage payments on a 30 year fixed (does not include taxes, insurance) are:
| Interest Rate |
|
Monthly Payment |
|
Monthly Savings compared to $998.57 |
| 4.375% |
|
$998.57 |
|
not applicable |
| 5.375% |
|
$1,119.84 |
|
$121.27 |
| 6.375% |
|
$1,247.75 |
|
$249.18 |
Aside from the monthly savings - an interest rate of 4.375% vs. 5.375% could save you $43,693.91 over the life of the loan. And an interest rate of 4.375% vs. 6.375% could save you $89,700.94. WOW.
According to the latest report by National Association of Realtors®, pending homes sales rose based on contracts signed in March 2009. NAR's
Pending Home Sales Index showed March 2009 contracts rose 3.2% from February's level of 82. This index is a forward-looking index based on contracts signed not closed sales and is based on the national market. Additionally March 2009's 84.6% was 1% increased from a year ago's March 2008 index of 83.7%.
Lawrence Yun, NAR'S chief economist, stated "This increase could be the leading edge of first-time buyers responding to very favorable affordability conditions and an $8,000 tax credit, which increases buying power even more in areas where special programs allow buyers to use it as a down payment," he says. "We need several months of sustained growth to demonstrate a recovery in housing, which is necessary for the overall economy to turn around."
Here is a breakdown of pending home sales by region:
- South: rose 8.5 percent to 93.2 in March and is 7.7 percent above a year ago.
- West: increased 3.9 percent to 93.1 and is 1.7 percent higher than March 2008.
- Northeast: fell 5.7 percent to 59.5 in March and is 24.1 percent below a year ago.
- Midwest: slipped 1 percent to 82.3 but is 8.2 percent higher than March 2008.
FMLS Stats for the Month of March 2009.
Per Steve Palm who provides the Smart Numbers from FMLS, sees a "moderate trend for a number of single family housing statistics that still point to positive results for June or July (2009)." He also states that "while March 2009 numbers were down from the previous year - March 2008, March 2009 is up over February 2009 by the greatest percentage since Feb - March 2006." It is important to realize this increase is not based on number of units sold but percentages.
This news is great for the single Family market but we will probably wait a bit longer for the good news about the condo market in most markets. However there was an increase in number of units sold - 64 in Feb 2009 and 99 in March 2009. We also see an increase in the number of units sold in single family houses in areas 21,23 & 24 - 65 sold in Feb 2009 and 88 sold in March 2009. Key to FMLS areas is
here. February 2009 numbers are
here.
Condos/Townhomes
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
30 |
$24,370,360 |
$ 816,345 |
$ 923,287 |
91.1% |
97.4 |
| 23 |
27 |
$10,545,500 |
$ 390,574 |
$ 410,309 |
95.5% |
66.2 |
| 24 |
31 |
$5,805,575 |
$ 187,277 |
$ 196,164 |
95.5% |
51.3 |
| 31 |
142 |
$6,767,951 |
$ 47,662 |
$ 67,282 |
90.7% |
105.5 |
| 32 |
77 |
$8,255,772 |
$ 107,218 |
$ 128,196 |
92.1% |
87.7 |
| 52 |
106 |
$24,418,719 |
$ 230,365 |
$ 544,356 |
92.6% |
97 |
| TOTALS |
413 |
$80,163,877 |
|
|
|
|
Note - in Area 52 - the average original list price of $544,356 looks like a typo to me or an error in the list price when the property was first listed.
Areas 31 & 32 are areas with high numbers of foreclosures rates - particular area 31. It is great to see the foreclosures being absorbed.
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market |
| 21 |
56 |
$ 14,010,638 |
$ 250,190 |
$ 286,601 |
91.7% |
122.2 |
| 23 |
40 |
$ 7,601,054 |
$ 190,026 |
$ 225,689 |
88.2% |
113.8 |
| 24 |
3 |
$ 714,900 |
$ 238,300 |
$ 259,900 |
97.3% |
109.7 |
| TOTALS |
99 |
$ 22,326,592 |
|
|
|
|
Single Family Homes
FMLS stats for the month of February 2009
Condos/Townhomes:
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market* |
| 21 |
33 |
$ 7,968,790 |
$ 241,477 |
$ 292,145 |
91.90% |
148.5 |
| 23 |
26 |
$ 5,381,980 |
$ 206,996 |
$ 232,762 |
93.70% |
144.5 |
| 24 |
5 |
$ 1,270,000 |
$ 254,000 |
$ 297,634 |
96.80% |
111.6 |
| TOTALS |
64 |
$ 14,620,770 |
|
|
|
|
Single Family Homes
| Area |
# of Sales |
Total Sales Volume |
Avg Sale Price |
Average Original List Price |
Sales Price to Final List Price |
Average Total Days on the Market* |
| 21 |
20 |
$11,614,500 |
$ 580,725 |
$ 659,175 |
93.3% |
151.7 |
| 23 |
18 |
$9,411,900 |
$ 522,883 |
$ 570,477 |
94.7% |
131 |
| 24 |
27 |
$5,068,041 |
$ 187,705 |
$ 211,952 |
94.0% |
110.5 |
| TOTALS |
65 |
$26,094,441 |
|
|
|
|
Click here for FMLS Area descriptions
In both the condo/townhome & home markets - there is still a large difference in the average original list price for the area and the average sale price. Listings continue to be priced higher than the market. Requiring sellers to reduce their list price during the course of marketing and then still negotiating on price to sell.
FMLS Area Codes for Intown
| FMLS Area |
Neighborhoods |
| 21 |
Buckhead neighborhoods including Chastain Park |
| 23 |
Midtown, Morningside, Virginia Highland, Inman Park, Piedmont Heights |
| 24 |
Druid Hills, Candler Park, Lake Claire, Kirkwood, Edgewood, East Atlanta, East Lake, Oakhurst |
| 31 |
Capitol View Manor, Sylvan Hills, College Park, Adair Park, West End, Jefferson Park |
| 32 |
Grant Park, Ormewood Park, Glenwood Park |
| 52 |
Decatur, Clairemont, Toco Hills, Oakhurst, East Lake, Kirkwood |
If you don't see your neighborhood ~ let me know. Some neighborhoods may appear in 2 different areas.
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