July 2013
Mortgage interest rates are on the rise. In the past few weeks, interest rates have ticked upwards. The raise in the interet rates hurt for sure: it reduces the amount of house many buyers can afford. My buyers and have sellers have felt the sting. Reality is that we had historically LOW interest interest rates and they couldn't last forever below 4%.
So where are they going? And how is the real estate market going to be impacted?
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Associaton of Realtors, had the following points:
- Anticipates hitting 5% by mid year 2014 & may climb higher in 2015
- it will push some buyers out of the market (especially as sales prices are increasing)
- improvements in underwriting loans as they return to less restrictive requirements
- Yun estimates that 15-20% MORE households are qualifying for safe, affordable mortgages with conventional financing (Loans up to $417,000) with credit scores of 720 or above. (In recent years the credit score needed to be 760-770)
- FHA Loans - credit scores of 660 (prevously was 680-700)
- Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae have greatly improved their performance & are starting to turn profits. Hopefully once they have repaid tax payer funds they will reduce some of these fees
It's important to remember as mortgage interest rates rise, they are still low and it is a great time to buy a home.
The year to date numbers for sales are out for June 2013 from the First Multiple Listing Service (FMLS). There has been a continued increase in the average sales prices while the active inventory & sales have continued decline. The average sales price for single family homes has increased 29% comparing YTD June 2013 to YTD June 2012. For the same time period - attached homes have increased 30%. Year to date sales for June 2013 vs same time period in 2012 - single family homes have decreased 4% an attached homes have decreased by 1%. Active inventory has decreased 34% for attached homes and 17% for single family homes.
I am not surprised one bit at the increase in average sales prices. Limited availabilty of homes for sale coupled with a high demand of buyers has brought us multiple offers. We have been seeing multiple offers since Late 2012 many of them going over the asking price to win the home. Multiple offers are great for sellers because they can choose their highest and best offer. Multiple Offers can be frustrating for the buyers because a great bid - even one over asking price doesn't always yield the win and that is always frustrating.
One HUGE point needs to be said about the above numbers. The stats above all include homes listed and sold through the FMLS. In the past 8 to 9 months - many homes have never made it to the FMLS which would be an argument for higher sales than reported above. It is common in new construction for homes to not be reported to FMLS.
