National Market

Existing Sales - November 2009

South is definitely seeing some improvement and movement in the market.  While we will have to wait a few more weeks for the December 2009 numbers - what will be more important is the cumulative numbers for the year 2009.The following information is provided by NAR in their November 2009 update.  Data was released at the end of December.   The data is for resales. Regional Sales by Price
Existing Single Family Homes
November 2009
% Change in Sales from 1 Year Ago
Region	$0-100K	$100-250K	$250-500K	$500-750K	$750K-1M	$1M+
Northeast	29.1%	75.3%	50.5%	31.7%	9.4%	30.2%
Midwest	44.0%	70.0%	47.6%	29.9%	10.7%	-13.1%
South	24.5%	53.6%	37.9%	55.2%	60.6%	28.4%
West	28.9%	46.8%	24.3%	35.9%	58.2%	64.2%
U.S.	32.4%	60.0%	38.8%	38.2%	40.7%	39.0%
Sales Distribution
Region	$0-100K	$100-250K	$250-500K	$500-750K	$750-1M	$1M+
U.S.	20.8%	49.8%	22.1%	5.0%	1.2%	1.1%

National Market

Economists Predict Atlanta as Place for Home Prices to Increase!

Moody’s economists report to Forbes.com the recovery of the real estate market.   Some analysts are predicting the National market to hit bottom by mid 2010.   Predictions indicate that from 2009 to 2014 - an 11.35% increase in prices.  Good news indeed!   It is a great time to buy with LOW interest rates and LOW prices.

Here is the full Forbes.com article.

National Market

July Homes Sales Rise 7.2%

The National Association of Realtors said today that home sales rose 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July, from a pace of 4.89 million in June.   It was the 4th straight monthly increase and the highest level of sales since August 2007.   Sales had been expected to rise to annual pace of 5 million, according to surveyed economists.  July’s increase to 5.24 million was higher than anticipated. ”The housing market, with today’s strong rise in sales, has decisively turned for the better,” said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

National the median sales price is down by 15 percent to $178,400.   Sales of foreclosures & distressed properties make up about a third of all transactions in July which is down from half of all transactions from earlier this year.   In several markets across the US - buyers are purchasing foreclosed properties at deep discounts.   

The tax credit for first time buyers - also seems to have helped sales.   In order to qualify for the First-time buyer tax credit - homes must be CLOSED by November 30, 2009.    The tax credit is for 10% of the purchase price upt to a maximum of $8,000.   And while it is billed for the first time buyers - you may qualify if you haven’t owned a primary property for the past 3 years.   

The 9.4-month supply of current inventory at the current sales pace is unchanged from June.

National Market

Bernanke says US Economy on the Verge of Recovery

At the annual Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the U.S. economy is on the verge of a long-awaited recovery after enduring a brutal recession.  Bernanke said that   economic activity in both the U.S. and around the world appears to be “leveling out,” and “the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good.”   

~sourced AJC.com

National Market

New Home Sales Up - Nationwide

The Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 11 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, from an upwardly revised May rate of 346,000.  WOW.  It is the fastest increase in more than eight years for new construction home sales.

Indeed home prices are still falling, but the improvement in new construction sales is another sign the national housing market is starting to bounce back.   Earlier this month, the government reported that national home resales rose almost 4 percent in June, the third straight monthly increase.

“The worst of the housing recession … is now behind us,” said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. “We’re turning the corner toward increased activity in housing.”

The median national sales price of $206,200 was down 12 percent from $234,300 a year earlier and off nearly 6 percent from $219,000 in May.  In addition to lower prices, buyers are rushing to take advantage of a federal tax credit that covers 10 percent of the home price or up to $8,000 for first-time buyers.  Home sales need to be completed by the end of November for buyers to take advantage.  You must close by November 30, 2009.

June’s results were the strongest sales pace since November 2008 and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 360,000 units. The last time sales rose so dramatically was in December 2000.

There were 281,000 new homes for sale at the end of June, down more than 4 % from May.  At the current sales pace, that represents 8.8 months of supply which is the lowest level since October 2007.  Some analysts say that when the inventory falls down around a 6 month supply, builders will feel more comfortable ramping up construction.

Portions of this article were sourced from a July 2009 article by real estate columnist Alan Zeibel & FMLS

National Market

The Numbers - April 2009

There was an increase in the number of sales in the intown markets from March 2009 to April 2009.     In single family houses - there were 23 more closings and in increase in sales volume of $16,631,268.  

April 2009 Numbers:

Homes:

Area	# of Sales	Total Sales Volume	Avg Sale Price	Average Original List Price	Sales Price to Final List Price	Average Total Days on the Market
21	43	$              8,645,504	$             201,058	$             221,666	94.7%	120.8
23	47	$           11,501,906	$             244,721	$             268,637	97.0%	155.4
24	1	$                 190,000	$             190,000	$             210,000	95.2%	25
52	23	$              3,867,405	$             168,148	$             182,914	95.0%	120.4
TOTALS	114	$           24,204,815

Condos & Townhomes:

Area	# of Sales	Total Sales Volume	Avg Sale Price	Average Original List Price	Sales Price to Final List Price	Average Total Days on the Market
21	43	$              8,645,504	$             201,058	$             221,666	94.7%	120.8
23	47	$           11,501,906	$             244,721	$             268,637	97.0%	155.4
24	1	$                 190,000	$             190,000	$             210,000	95.2%	25
52	23	$              3,867,405	$             168,148	$             182,914	95.0%	120.4
TOTALS	114	$           24,204,815

 

Key to the Areas is here.   March 2009 numbers are here and February 2009 numbers are here.

 Here are the national housing indicators for the April:

Existing-Home Sales          4.68 million units*

Existing-Home Median Price        $170,200

Housing Starts      458,000*

New Home Sales         352,000 units*

*seasonally adjusted annual rate

National Market

Pending Homes Sales - April 2009

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April 2009, rose 6.7 % to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March 2009, and is 3.2%. when it was 87.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions.   “Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market,” he says. “Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 (2009) to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers.”

Geographical Breakdown of Pending Home Sales Index

Northeast: The index shot up 32.6 % to 78.9 in April and is 0.8 % above a year ago.
Midwest: The index rose 9.8 % to 90.4 and is 11.1 % above April 2008.
South: The index slipped 0.2% to 93 in April but is 3.5% higher than a year ago.
West: The index rose 1.8 % to 94.8 but is 2.9 % below April 2008.

National Market

Economy Improving

As is my custom - I was listening to Good Morning America as I let the dogs out, make the coffee and get started on waking up.    But this morning - I was delightfully jolted out of my early morning haze by Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwabb, who proclaimed that the recession had ended.   What is even better is that she was agreeing with Barry Knapp, of Barclay’s Capital, who recently announced that the recession may have ended last month in April.  Knapp actually said the economy appears “to be in the sweet spot of a recovery”.  

One of the indicators pointing to a recovery is unemployment.  Unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy - meaning unemployment may not improve for several months and you can expect that unemployment will peak by year end.   Historically employment figures don’t seem recover until six months after the end of a recession.   However, Sonders indicated that layoffs are slowing down and the unemployment claims are starting to edge lower.

Another indicator pointing to a economic recovery is the housing market.   One of the leading indicators of  how the housing marketing is faring is the inventory level -  the number of homes on the market.   According to Pat Lashinsky of Zip Realty, “Inventory levels are actually declining and median home prices of homes available for sale have actually gone up.”   When the number of homes on the market goes down - prices rise and the market improves.   “The fact that inventory is declining is suggesting that soon we may see home prices begin to stabilize.   In some markets, it may begin to turn upward.   But the downturn in the housing that we’ve had for the last three years may be coming to an end,” said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.   “Buyers are a lot more engaged,” Yun said.   “There’s an excitement and a passion that hasn’t been seen in the last 18 months right now.”

These statistics are for the national markets and it will be interesting to see what our metro Atlanta numbers will be. It will be a week or two before our April numbers our out but even our March numbers showed improvement.  NAR’s numbers for the national market showed improvement in march as well - here they are.

National Market

Pending Home Sales Index - March 2009

According to the latest report by National Association of Realtors®, pending homes sales rose based on contracts signed in March 2009.   NAR’s  Pending Home Sales Index showed March 2009 contracts rose 3.2% from February’s level of 82.   This index is a forward-looking index based on contracts signed not closed sales and is based on the national market.   Additionally March 2009’s 84.6% was 1% increased from a year ago’s March 2008 index of 83.7%.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’S chief economist, stated “This increase could be the leading edge of first-time buyers responding to very favorable affordability conditions and an $8,000 tax credit, which increases buying power even more in areas where special programs allow buyers to use it as a down payment,” he says. “We need several months of sustained growth to demonstrate a recovery in housing, which is necessary for the overall economy to turn around.”

Here is a breakdown of pending home sales by region:

• South: rose 8.5 percent to 93.2 in March and is 7.7 percent above a year ago.
• West: increased 3.9 percent to 93.1 and is 1.7 percent higher than March 2008.
• Northeast: fell 5.7 percent to 59.5 in March and is 24.1 percent below a year ago.
• Midwest: slipped 1 percent to 82.3 but is 8.2 percent higher than March 2008.