Market

Bernanke says US Economy on the Verge of Recovery

At the annual Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the U.S. economy is on the verge of a long-awaited recovery after enduring a brutal recession.  Bernanke said that   economic activity in both the U.S. and around the world appears to be “leveling out,” and “the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good.”   

~sourced AJC.com

Atlanta Market Update – August 2009

An article in the AJC today reports that the median sales price of single family homes in metro Atlanta rose in the 2nd Quarter of 2009.   The metro Atlanta median sales price was $121,400 in the 2 nd Q of 2009, up 5 percent from $115,600 for the 1stQ of the year.  The current median sales price is 23 percent lower than it was this time last year, $158,300, according to figures released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.   Click here for the full AJC article.

When comparing the 2nd Quarter 2009 sales (number sold) to 2nd Quarter 2008 sales – there has been an expected decline in the number of sales.    2ndQ 2008 – total of 10,029 sales vs. 2ndQ 2009 – total of 8,520 sales.   But when broken out by sales price there is actually an increase in 2ndQ 2009′s numbers in the $200k or less sales price.    2ndQ 2008 total of 4,692 sales vs. 2ndQ 2009 of 5,035 sales.    Foreclosures and declining prices attribute to this increase in sales.

Foreclosures have had a tremendous impact on the 2009 market.  2Q 2008 - 19.5% of the sales were foreclosures compared to 2Q 2009 where 31.8% of the sales were foreclosures.  (Short sales are not included in these statistics at present as there is not a way to accurately track them.)   Certainly many buyers have been taking advantage of the falling prices & the $8000 tax credit to purchase homes.    As foreclores, short sales & great buys are purchased and the inventories absorbed – we should begin to see pricing stabilizing and eventually price increases.

New Home Sales Up – Nationwide

The Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 11 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, from an upwardly revised May rate of 346,000.  WOW.  It is the fastest increase in more than eight years for new construction home sales.

Indeed home prices are still falling, but the improvement in new construction sales is another sign the national housing market is starting to bounce back.   Earlier this month, the government reported that national home resales rose almost 4 percent in June, the third straight monthly increase.

“The worst of the housing recession … is now behind us,” said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. “We’re turning the corner toward increased activity in housing.”

The median national sales price of $206,200 was down 12 percent from $234,300 a year earlier and off nearly 6 percent from $219,000 in May.  In addition to lower prices, buyers are rushing to take advantage of a federal tax credit that covers 10 percent of the home price or up to $8,000 for first-time buyers.  Home sales need to be completed by the end of November for buyers to take advantage.  You must close by November 30, 2009.

June’s results were the strongest sales pace since November 2008 and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 360,000 units. The last time sales rose so dramatically was in December 2000.

There were 281,000 new homes for sale at the end of June, down more than 4 % from May.  At the current sales pace, that represents 8.8 months of supply which is the lowest level since October 2007.  Some analysts say that when the inventory falls down around a 6 month supply, builders will feel more comfortable ramping up construction.

Portions of this article were sourced from a July 2009 article by real estate columnist Alan Zeibel & FMLS

The Numbers – June 2009

The FMLS has finally published the June 2009 numbers!   And there is continued good news in the numbers.  Across all of FMLS areas (36 total) average closed prices are continuing to head back up.  We are seeing lower inventories and the large number of months supply of houses on the market is starting to moderate as inventories continue to decline.  If this trend continues we can expect prices to continue to increase.

Below are the monthly charts for 5 in-town areas of the FMLS – just a portion of the 36 total areas in FMLS.

FOR CONDOS/TOWNHOMES:

Area	# of Sales	Total Sales Volume	Avg Sale Price	Average Original List Price	Sales Price to Final List Price	Average Total Days on the Market
21	72	$ 21,803,417	$     302,825	$       435,664	74.1%	146.2
23	75	$ 14,983,000	$     199,773	$       218,380	96.0%	107.6
24	5	$      868,900	$     173,780	$       188,560	96.2%	49.6
52	46	$   7,643,805	$     166,170	$       186,434	94.4%	120.1
TOTALS	198	$ 45,299,122

 

HOUSES:

Area	# of Sales	Total Sales Volume	Avg Sale Price	Average Original List Price	Sales Price to Final List Price	Average Total Days on the Market
21	65	$61,106,623	$       940,102	$     ,138,312	87.8%	115.5
23	40	$19,032,273	$       475,807	$      550,100	94.7%	132.5
24	63	$14,952,700	$       237,344	$      262,342	96.2%	91.8
31	119	$5,230,423	$         43,953	$        57,414	92.8%	79.6
32	73	$8,631,929	$       118,246	$      135,225	95.6%	79.8
52	160	$35,186,598	$       219,916	$      247,542	93.7%	90.2
TOTALS	520	$144,140,546

Click here for FMLS Area – key codes.    

In these in-town markets – the total sales volume for Condos/Town homes was $21,804,580 for May compared to June’s sales volume of $45,299,122.  Sales volume of single family homes in these 5 areas jumped to $144,140,546 in sales volume compared to May’s sales volume of $99,337,550.   Here are breakdowns of past months: May 2009, April 2009 & March 2009.

It is a great time to buy!

The Numbers – May 2009

May 2009 Numbers:

Condos/Townhomes:

Area	# of Sales	Total Sales Volume	Avg Sale Price	Average Original List Price	Sales Price to Final List Price	Average Total Days on the Market
21	51	$              9,505,160	$             186,370	$             199,370	93.5%	97.1
23	39	$              6,659,470	$             168,488	$             174,322	96.6%	98.9
24	5	$              1,171,500	$             234,300	$             236,380	99.1%	142.2
52	23	$              4,468,450	$             194,280	$             205,466	94.6%	163.6
TOTALS	118	$           21,804,580

 

Homes:

Area	# of Sales	Total Sales Volume	Avg Sale Price	Average Original List Price	Sales Price to Final List Price	Average Total Days on the Market
21	41	$31,948,960	$             779,243	$             855,875	91.0%	161.3
23	32	$16,852,438	$             526,639	$             573,433	91.8%	103.2
24	43	$10,013,330	$             232,868	$             245,127	95.0%	92.5
31	148	$7,345,715	$               49,633	$               53,536	92.7%	106.6
32	55	$5,260,975	$               95,654	$             101,802	94.0%	71
52	135	$27,916,132	$             206,786	$             220,757	93.7%	88.7
TOTALS	454	$99,337,550

The area key is here.

Pending Homes Sales Record Fourth Straight Monthly Gain

The NAR – National Association of Realtors – announced the pending home sales show an uptrend for the past four consecutive months.  They attribute favorable housing affordability and 1st time buyer tax credits as boosting the latest survey.  The June Pending Homes Sales Index increased 0.1% to 90.7%.   The last time there were four consecutive monthly gains was in October 2004.    Closed existing-home sales are improving but they are coming in lower than expected because of delayed closings or falling through due to financing qualifications or road blocks with the new appraisal rules in place.   According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, “Rises in contract activity show buyers are becoming more active even as they face much more stringent loan underwriting standards.  Speedy clarification of the appraisal rules could smooth a housing market recovery and support the overall economy”.

The Numbers – April 2009

There was an increase in the number of sales in the intown markets from March 2009 to April 2009.     In single family houses – there were 23 more closings and in increase in sales volume of $16,631,268.  

April 2009 Numbers:

Homes:

Area	# of Sales	Total Sales Volume	Avg Sale Price	Average Original List Price	Sales Price to Final List Price	Average Total Days on the Market
21	43	$              8,645,504	$             201,058	$             221,666	94.7%	120.8
23	47	$           11,501,906	$             244,721	$             268,637	97.0%	155.4
24	1	$                 190,000	$             190,000	$             210,000	95.2%	25
52	23	$              3,867,405	$             168,148	$             182,914	95.0%	120.4
TOTALS	114	$           24,204,815

Condos & Townhomes:

Area	# of Sales	Total Sales Volume	Avg Sale Price	Average Original List Price	Sales Price to Final List Price	Average Total Days on the Market
21	43	$              8,645,504	$             201,058	$             221,666	94.7%	120.8
23	47	$           11,501,906	$             244,721	$             268,637	97.0%	155.4
24	1	$                 190,000	$             190,000	$             210,000	95.2%	25
52	23	$              3,867,405	$             168,148	$             182,914	95.0%	120.4
TOTALS	114	$           24,204,815

 

Key to the Areas is here.   March 2009 numbers are here and February 2009 numbers are here.

 Here are the national housing indicators for the April:

Existing-Home Sales          4.68 million units*

Existing-Home Median Price        $170,200

Housing Starts      458,000*

New Home Sales         352,000 units*

*seasonally adjusted annual rate

Pending Homes Sales – April 2009

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April 2009, rose 6.7 % to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March 2009, and is 3.2%. when it was 87.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions.   “Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market,” he says. “Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 (2009) to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers.”

Geographical Breakdown of Pending Home Sales Index

Northeast: The index shot up 32.6 % to 78.9 in April and is 0.8 % above a year ago.
Midwest: The index rose 9.8 % to 90.4 and is 11.1 % above April 2008.
South: The index slipped 0.2% to 93 in April but is 3.5% higher than a year ago.
West: The index rose 1.8 % to 94.8 but is 2.9 % below April 2008.

Georgia Income Tax Credits – $1800 For Buying a House

Gov. Sonny Perdue signed on Monday Bill 261 into law.  The law offers a tax credit of 1.2 percent of the purchase price of a single-family home currently on the market.  The credit tops out at $1,800 and will be taken over three years.  Georgia taxpayers have six months starting now to qualify for up to $1,800 in income tax credits by buying a home.

For first-time home buyers, the state credit would be in addition to a federal credit offered through the federal stimulus act.  That credit is worth up to $8,000.  The new state credit, however, applies to any home buyer, not just first-timers.  Read more about the $8,000 federal tax here.

Economy Improving

As is my custom – I was listening to Good Morning America as I let the dogs out, make the coffee and get started on waking up.    But this morning – I was delightfully jolted out of my early morning haze by Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwabb, who proclaimed that the recession had ended.   What is even better is that she was agreeing with Barry Knapp, of Barclay’s Capital, who recently announced that the recession may have ended last month in April.  Knapp actually said the economy appears “to be in the sweet spot of a recovery”.  

One of the indicators pointing to a recovery is unemployment.  Unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy – meaning unemployment may not improve for several months and you can expect that unemployment will peak by year end.   Historically employment figures don’t seem recover until six months after the end of a recession.   However, Sonders indicated that layoffs are slowing down and the unemployment claims are starting to edge lower.

Another indicator pointing to a economic recovery is the housing market.   One of the leading indicators of  how the housing marketing is faring is the inventory level -  the number of homes on the market.   According to Pat Lashinsky of Zip Realty, “Inventory levels are actually declining and median home prices of homes available for sale have actually gone up.”   When the number of homes on the market goes down – prices rise and the market improves.   “The fact that inventory is declining is suggesting that soon we may see home prices begin to stabilize.   In some markets, it may begin to turn upward.   But the downturn in the housing that we’ve had for the last three years may be coming to an end,” said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.   “Buyers are a lot more engaged,” Yun said.   “There’s an excitement and a passion that hasn’t been seen in the last 18 months right now.”

These statistics are for the national markets and it will be interesting to see what our metro Atlanta numbers will be. It will be a week or two before our April numbers our out but even our March numbers showed improvement.  NAR’s numbers for the national market showed improvement in march as well – here they are.

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