Market

Market Update on Economy

Pending home sales for the month of March 2010 increased 5.3% from the previous month to 102.9.  The March 2010 is 21.1% higher than March 2009 which was 85.0.  The data is provided by the National Realtors Association and is for homes under contract – not closed.

Definitely the increase is in part to the end of the buyer tax credit (must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by end of June 2010).   According to Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, “Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped stabilized the market.  In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales.  Later in the second half of the year and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand as they see ome values stablizing.”

From my persepective – yes – we will probably see a slow down in under contracts and sales after April 30th but many Atlanta buyers are out there.   They want to buy even if they didn’t get the tax credit.   Home prices seem to be stabilizing in areas (still early but the numbers are showing some improvements), and loans are becoming readily available in the jumbo market (loans over $417,000) as banks’ begin to show healthy balance sheets.  Buyers want great deals and sellers are understanding this and working to price their homes right for the current market.  I am talking to buyers who still want to buy!

In Metro Atlanta – we are starting to see a slight reduction in the unemployment rate which is a lagging indicator of the economy.  The unemployment rate will follow other improvements in the economy – such as the increase in the pending sales numbers.   The good news is that March 2010 the unemployment rate dropped for the Metro Altanta area.

Pending Home Sales Index Drops in November 2009

The NAR announced on 1.5.2010 that the pending home sales index fell in November 2009 from previous month but remains above last year’s numbers.   In October 2009 the pending sales index (forward looking indicator based on contracts signed for the month) was 114.3%.  November 2009 saw the number falling 16% to 96%.  Nov 2009 – 96% is still higher than Nov 2008’s 83.1%.

The October 2009 surge benefited from the last push for the first time buyer tax credit.  With the extension of the first time buyers tax credit and the addition of the buying tax credit for other qualifying buyers and the low interest rates - we will hopefully see a surge in 2010’s number.

Existing Sales – November 2009

South is definitely seeing some improvement and movement in the market.  While we will have to wait a few more weeks for the December 2009 numbers - what will be more important is the cumulative numbers for the year 2009.The following information is provided by NAR in their November 2009 update.  Data was released at the end of December.   The data is for resales. Regional Sales by Price
Existing Single Family Homes
November 2009
% Change in Sales from 1 Year Ago
Region	$0-100K	$100-250K	$250-500K	$500-750K	$750K-1M	$1M+
Northeast	29.1%	75.3%	50.5%	31.7%	9.4%	30.2%
Midwest	44.0%	70.0%	47.6%	29.9%	10.7%	-13.1%
South	24.5%	53.6%	37.9%	55.2%	60.6%	28.4%
West	28.9%	46.8%	24.3%	35.9%	58.2%	64.2%
U.S.	32.4%	60.0%	38.8%	38.2%	40.7%	39.0%
Sales Distribution
Region	$0-100K	$100-250K	$250-500K	$500-750K	$750-1M	$1M+
U.S.	20.8%	49.8%	22.1%	5.0%	1.2%	1.1%

Cash Buyers Creating Bidding Wars

We saw this quite a bit in 2009 here in Atlanta - foreclosed properties receiving multiple bids.  The winners of the bids are often cash offers from investors leaving would be homeowners scratching their heads wondering how to win the bid.   Here is a great article from the Washington Post about Cash Buyers Triggering Bidding Wars.   

There are some great options for folks looking to buy and live in the home – such as the HUD programs which allow for owner occupied bids over investor bids for the first 2 weeks of property being listed.  The catch on some of these homes is the bidder needs cash to cover any overages and/or closing costs. 

I had a client this past fall who successful outbid the other offers on the table with a financing contingency.  We went over on the asking price but he has moved in and has a great house in a great area.  And though he paid over the asking price, the house was still below what has sold in the area and needed minimal repairs.

Remember the tax buyer credit is still out there!

Federal Housing Tax Credit – 2009/2010

Great news for buyers and sellers!  The Federal Housing Tax Credit has been amended and extended.   In addition to credits for first time buyers, there is also now a credit for move-up buyers.

FIRST TIME HOME BUYER CREDIT:

• $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers – which is defined by IRS as someone who hasn’t owned a principal residence during the three years prior to this purchse.
• Tax credit is up to 10% of the home’s purchase price – maximum of $8,000.
• Home price must be less than $800,000 sales price.
• Applies to sales occurring on or after January 1, 2009 and on or before April 30, 2010.  However – if binding agreement is reached on April 30, 2010 – you just have to close by June 30, 2010 to be eligible.
• For homes purchased after November 6, 2009 and by April 30, 2010 – the income has been increased to single filers at $125,000 and married couples filing jointly at $225,000 to qualify for the full tax credit.

MOVE-UP BUYERS:

• To be eligible to claim the tax credit – buyers must have owned and lived in previous home for 5 consecutive years out of the last 8 years.
• Tax credit doesn’t have to be repaid
• Tax credit is equal to 10% of the sales purchase price up to $6,500
• Tax credit applies to homes with purchase prices of $800,000 or less
• Applies to sales occurring on or after January 1, 2009 and on or before April 30, 2010.  However – if binding agreement is reached on April 30, 2010 – you just have to close by June 30, 2010 to be eligible.
• For homes purchased after November 6, 2009 and by April 30, 2010 – the income has been increased to single filers at $125,000 and married couples filing jointly at $225,000 to qualify for the full tax credit

This should help continue to move inventory along with the great low interest rates.  And if you are selling your home – this will also help open doors to buyers who might need just a bit more incentive to buy!  As always – contact me if you have any questions or are interested in buying or selling!

You can visit the Federal Housing Tax Credit site here.

Economists Predict Atlanta as Place for Home Prices to Increase!

Moody’s economists report to Forbes.com the recovery of the real estate market.   Some analysts are predicting the National market to hit bottom by mid 2010.   Predictions indicate that from 2009 to 2014 – an 11.35% increase in prices.  Good news indeed!   It is a great time to buy with LOW interest rates and LOW prices.

Here is the full Forbes.com article.

4.75% – 30yr Fixed Interest Rates!

Interest rates popped down to 4.75% yesterday for 30 year fixed conforming loans!   WOW!  Great time to buy – lower purchase prices – low interest rates!  AND if you are a first time buyer or haven’t owned primary house in past 3 years – you may be eligible for $8,000 tax credit if you close by 11.30.09!

Email me with questions and for more information!

July Homes Sales Rise 7.2%

The National Association of Realtors said today that home sales rose 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July, from a pace of 4.89 million in June.   It was the 4th straight monthly increase and the highest level of sales since August 2007.   Sales had been expected to rise to annual pace of 5 million, according to surveyed economists.  July’s increase to 5.24 million was higher than anticipated. ”The housing market, with today’s strong rise in sales, has decisively turned for the better,” said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

National the median sales price is down by 15 percent to $178,400.   Sales of foreclosures & distressed properties make up about a third of all transactions in July which is down from half of all transactions from earlier this year.   In several markets across the US – buyers are purchasing foreclosed properties at deep discounts.   

The tax credit for first time buyers – also seems to have helped sales.   In order to qualify for the First-time buyer tax credit – homes must be CLOSED by November 30, 2009.    The tax credit is for 10% of the purchase price upt to a maximum of $8,000.   And while it is billed for the first time buyers – you may qualify if you haven’t owned a primary property for the past 3 years.   

The 9.4-month supply of current inventory at the current sales pace is unchanged from June.

Bernanke says US Economy on the Verge of Recovery

At the annual Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the U.S. economy is on the verge of a long-awaited recovery after enduring a brutal recession.  Bernanke said that   economic activity in both the U.S. and around the world appears to be “leveling out,” and “the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good.”   

~sourced AJC.com

Atlanta Market Update – August 2009

An article in the AJC today reports that the median sales price of single family homes in metro Atlanta rose in the 2nd Quarter of 2009.   The metro Atlanta median sales price was $121,400 in the 2 nd Q of 2009, up 5 percent from $115,600 for the 1stQ of the year.  The current median sales price is 23 percent lower than it was this time last year, $158,300, according to figures released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.   Click here for the full AJC article.

When comparing the 2nd Quarter 2009 sales (number sold) to 2nd Quarter 2008 sales – there has been an expected decline in the number of sales.    2ndQ 2008 – total of 10,029 sales vs. 2ndQ 2009 – total of 8,520 sales.   But when broken out by sales price there is actually an increase in 2ndQ 2009’s numbers in the $200k or less sales price.    2ndQ 2008 total of 4,692 sales vs. 2ndQ 2009 of 5,035 sales.    Foreclosures and declining prices attribute to this increase in sales.

Foreclosures have had a tremendous impact on the 2009 market.  2Q 2008 - 19.5% of the sales were foreclosures compared to 2Q 2009 where 31.8% of the sales were foreclosures.  (Short sales are not included in these statistics at present as there is not a way to accurately track them.)   Certainly many buyers have been taking advantage of the falling prices & the $8000 tax credit to purchase homes.    As foreclores, short sales & great buys are purchased and the inventories absorbed – we should begin to see pricing stabilizing and eventually price increases.

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